Weather can be inconsistent in many parts of the world, so it seems. Many look to weather predictions to plan their day and figure out which attire is best to wear. However, sometimes we get caught off-guard by rain or extreme heat which can dampen our plans, leading us to lose faith in weather forecasts.
To understand why weather is so unpredictable, I completed a brief investigation that focused on two questions: why aren’t weather predictions always accurate? And how does climate change affect the predictability of weather? To find answers to my questions, I searched online sources and contacted the local National Weather Service office in San Diego, California.
Findings indicate that weather predictions are just that: a prediction. Weather patterns that occur are estimated based on computer models which project weather depending on current systems that are present. “The atmosphere is so chaotic, dynamic and changing every second over every acre of the world, it truly is a wonder we can forecast at all,” noted Miguel Miller, a forecaster from the San Diego Weather Service. “People long remember the “busted” forecast, but forget the 9 out of 10 good forecasts,” he added, which is very true. One bad weather prediction, and everyone is complaining. A spot-on weather forecast, and it’s crickets.
According to the SciJinks website, managed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), predictions can be anywhere from 50 to 90-percent accurate depending on the number of days projected. Future weather patterns are based on a guess rather than fact. So, how is the timing of a storm or its size predicted? By using satellites that orbit the Earth.
For example, in the United States, the NOAA gathers minute-by-minute weather information via the Geostationary Environmental Operational Satellite-R or GOES-R. This satellite is positioned high above Earth at about 22,000 miles and rotates with the planet allowing it to capture data that helps identify the characteristics of a weather pattern.
How will climate change impact predictions? Miller shares that “climate change helps us (forecasters) know what direction the climate is going. It doesn’t necessarily help us forecast the short-term weather within one week any better. It does inform us about what “could” happen.”
As global warming persists, changes in the atmosphere continue to occur. For instance, the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere accumulates leading to more incomplete weather projections.
A study conducted in 2019 in Stockholm, Sweden identified that while temperatures and pressure may be easier to forecast in the future, rainfall will be more challenging. This is due to the range of temperatures that change between the equator and North Pole which can affect water vapor in the atmosphere. A segment on climate and weather predictions presented by the Minnesota Public Radio (MPR) echoed this notion but added that theory of arctic amplification contributes to weather unpredictability and moisture in the air.
Arctic amplification (AA) is a phenomenon that causes sea ice to melt faster because of increased greenhouse gasses and warming ocean waters created by a combination of weather patterns. Warmer waters can offset jet streams (air currents) that carry rain and snow across the world making climate forecasts more difficult to predict.
But how does this affect humans?
The effects inaccurate weather predictions can have on humanity is vast. For instance, people may venture outdoors unprepared or fail to gather supplies needed to get through a weather event that turns out to be extreme. Proper shelter during a hurricane may not be sought on time because people are unaware of the intensity of a storm. Lastly, inconsistent forecasts can lead to mistrust between communities and meteorologists leaving people vulnerable to the elements.
So, to recap, weather forecasts are not always accurate because projections are based on assumptions rather than fact. Climate change will make it difficult to predict weather because of fluctuating temperatures and more water vapor in the atmosphere. However, such changes can help forecasters identify what to expect which can aid in preparing residents for weather that may be projected to be mild but turn out to be extreme.
Gracias!
Sources:
Anthrolatina 